{"id":12304,"date":"2020-10-05T03:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-10-04T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/keaweather.net\/?p=12304"},"modified":"2020-10-05T03:30:00","modified_gmt":"2020-10-04T22:00:00","slug":"a-brief-outlook-on-upcoming-nem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/a-brief-outlook-on-upcoming-nem\/","title":{"rendered":"A brief outlook on upcoming NEM"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The picture below indicates the 850hpa winds on October 13<sup>th<\/sup> 2020. The initial system seems to keep Westerly winds active till that date and the consecutive system follows it, holds the key for timely onset of Easterlies if it keeps moving towards lower latitudes. The intensity and track of both the systems seems to be significant to watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/keaweather.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/NEM1-1024x579.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12305\" width=\"512\" height=\"290\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If we further move on to look the prospects of NEM, the SST of Indian Ocean adjoined Maritime Continent holds the key as La-Nina years mostly depend on Systems based rainfall activity. An active South bay is favourable with the formation of \u2013IOD, but models have divided opinion on this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/keaweather.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/NEM2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12306\" width=\"279\" height=\"125\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The image below shows the probability of \u2013IOD formation but it\u2019s uncertain till now.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/keaweather.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/NEM3-1024x575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12307\" width=\"512\" height=\"288\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0<em>An active Maritime Continent may trigger pulses and push them into Bay of Bengal.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/keaweather.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/NEM4-1024x836.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12308\" width=\"612\" height=\"499\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em><u><strong>Some Probabilities to be looked upon<\/strong><\/u><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>1. If \u2013IOD formation happens even for a short period from Nov 2<sup>nd<\/sup> week, it will pave way for active South Bay systems with the help of MJO propagation.<br>2. If the 200hpa divergence zone occupies over MTC adjoined South China Sea, we may keep a medium level confidence of Systems heading towards TN.<br>3. If IOD Modoki establish over Central Indian Ocean, that may open the window for West coast along with East Coast &amp; an active GOM may favour<\/em><\/strong><strong><em> <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>whole TN.<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The picture below indicates the 850hpa winds on October 13th 2020. The initial system seems to keep Westerly winds active<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[46,50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-46","category-nem-2020"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12304"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12304\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kwschennai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}