After twin failures of monsoon, there were lots of talks about the performance of Indian monsoon in 2016. Those twin failures of monsoon had resulted in severe drought conditions across Southern Peninsula and West coast. Agriculture activity took a back-seat and farmers were badly in need of really above-normal monsoon in 2016.
With El Nino event coming to end by end of May, and La Nina development during late summer, expectations of above-normal monsoon were high among the forecasters. Indeed, IMD in it’s first out-look called for an above-normal monsoon for India in April and in the second out-look in June, they had maintained the same theme.
However, the monsoon did not arrive on time. The Arabian branch saw a delayed on-set and monsoon reached Kerala on June 7, and there were alarming bells ringing when monsoon stalled in Goa for a while.
But thankfully monsoon almost covered entire India since mid-June with only exception being NW India.
Data Courtesy – IMD
When you look at the performance of the monsoon in month of June, Southern Peninsula has received good amount of rainfall, thanks to strong dip in the monsoon trough at the start which gave room for Monsoon Low formation little southerly than normal.
Except places like Pondicherry and few districts of Southern Tamil Nadu, much of the state received close to excess rainfall. Andhra Pradesh state which has been under severe drought conditions, received excess monsoon for month of June.
But East India has seen deficit in monsoon conditions in month of June as expected in longer-range due to southerly oriented nature of monsoon trough. Even for the month of July rainfall is not expected to be that much high as they could end up with close to average rainfall.
So, what’s ahead for month of July with respect to Indian monsoon? Well, with the MJO absence in Indian Ocean, it is more likely that monsoon will go through a break phase for a brief period of time.
Look at the below chart from the GFS Ensembles, MJO signal is currently in the Eastern Pacific and it’s signal is quite strong which means Indian monsoon will take a back seat across S Peninsula including Kerala, Karnataka and Konkan around or after July 7. During this period, monsoon will be confined mostly over the N India.
Here’s the weekly Precipitation anomaly for July from the GFS Ensembles which is also supporting the idea of monsoon being confined to Northern portions of India.
In the first week of July Central India will be the primary focus of rains during this as interaction with the upper-trough over Indian sub continent is likely to increase the rainfall activity. Also, few places across North/North-East India will start receiving rains during this time period.
However, as long as the circulation across the West coast is active, there will still be decent amount of rains across the region and only in the interiors activity starts to take a back seat.
When we look at Week 2, the mid-latitude trough is still hanging on, but at the same time, there’s potential for a monsoon low during this time period which will give room for good rains across North-West India!
Places like Gujarat have been in need of rains and they have faced some real hot dry conditions during later part of May and early June recording high temperatures. Thus, these rains during this time period will be beneficial for them.
Going into Week 3 of July, the action shifts to Northern India and a subdued activity over most parts of India is imminent. Most of the monsoonal zones of India are seen quiet. This is where the monsoon is in break-phase as it’s axis shifts north-ward and places around North/ far North East India will be receiving decent amount of rains.
However, there’s potential for monsoon to resume again around the beginning of Week 4 as the MJO is likely to return to Indian Ocean during this phase. This is the time where monsoon becomes active again across the Peninsular India and gradually from West coast it is most likely that the rains would return across the monsoonal areas during late July.
This break phase can even be short-lived if MJO enters Indian Ocean bit quicker than expected as La Nina forcing will continue to strengthen. However, given the dynamics expected around Atlantic Ocean, the probability of it arriving quicker is low.
Overall to conclude, monsoon will undergo a break phase during mid-month but it is most likely to resume again from late July and activity will increase to start of August.