Gaja to pave the way for a fresh Monsoon Bout to commence

The Tropical cyclone Gaja, which had tracked northward after making a loop yesterday, took a more westerly track in the Central bay. The storm continues to persist strong with an obscured low level circulation. The convection zone has primarily shifted to the north east possibility due to a zonal alignment under the influence of the Pacific ridge but still retains a decent structure. Based on the tracks from various sources, it is estimated that the storm would be steered south westward in the next 48 hours owing to the Subtropical ridge and perhaps intensify due to a low-moderate shear plus the favorable sea surface temperatures along its course – before making landfall around Central TN coast on 15th Nov – as per current init conditions.

This track however is subject to change intraday depending on various mesoscale factors within the bay. Rainfall is likely to commence along the TN , South AP coasts and eventually pickup over next 12-24 hours and persist for the next 3 days . Rains could be heavy around the landfall zone and moderate to heavy in isolated places along the coasts. Showers could further continue post landfall along the coastal belt due to the pull effect as the storm pulse tracks into the Arabian sea. Further, some numerical models pick up a potential low pressure pulse in from SE bay beyond this phase . This would need to be watched in the coming days as Gaja makes landfall. The sea is expected to be rough and the winds along the coast are expected to increase in amplitude over next 24-48 hours as well.