Northeast Monsoon is likely to set in between October 16th–18th

For the past few days, we have been witnessing widespread thunderstorms over interiors with bright afternoons, due to the transition phase.

Northeast monsoon to set between October 16-18:

With the setting of east-northeasterly winds, the much awaited NE Monsoon is likely to set in over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh between October 16–18. In response to MJO-induced westerly wind burst (WWB) over the equatorial Indian Ocean, an area of circulation is likely to emerge over the Comorin Sea, driving rainfall over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu starting October 15.

Rains to Intensify:

With moisture-filled easterlies reaching Tamil Nadu, rainfall is very likely to increase over the region, including Chennai, from October 15, with fairly widespread rains from October 16 onwards.

Low to form :

Leading numerical weather models are forecasting a low-pressure area to emerge from the east-west shear zone by October 22–23 over the South Bay, which has the potential to intensify further. More information will be provided as confidence in the forecast increases.