Countdown to NEM starts!

Easterly winds are likely to establish over peninsular India as the southwest monsoon is slowly coming to an end. We are currently in a transition phase, witnessing a shift from westerly to easterly winds. Over the next week, these easterlies are expected to establish at different levels of the troposphere, marking the approach of the northeast monsoon.

5-Day Forecast:

Interior parts of Tamil Nadu can expect thunderstorms from late afternoon to nighttime. Coastal Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh are expected to see scattered rain showers in the early morning and afternoon, as the easterly winds strengthen at the 925 and 850 hPa levels.

Northeast Monsoon Onset:

Weather models predict the formation of a low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea by October 13, moving toward Tamil Nadu by October 15/16. This development could signify the onset of the northeast monsoon over the region. We are closely monitoring the situation and will provide further updates.

Long Range Forecast (LRF):

What can we expect from this year’s northeast monsoon? Leading climate models suggest above-normal rainfall for Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh due to the establishment of La Niña conditions in the eastern Pacific. The season is anticipated to be normal to above normal, with weather systems moving more west-northwestward, NW wards during November and December. However, the success of the northeast monsoon largely depends on the behavior of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), which is expected to favor phases 3, 4, and 5—indicating favorable conditions for the region. We’ll continue to monitor and see how the season unfolds.