Northeast monsoon to knock doors of Tamil Nadu by the 20th

As per Numerical model guidance, Northeast monsoon is likely to set in over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts between 20-22 October 2022.

✓Easterly winds are expected to strengthen from 19th October onwards which would result in increased rains over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu.

Easterlies are seen with full swing over Tamil Nadu coasts between 20-22 October which would cause moisture to dump good rains over coastal areas during late night to morning, and in interiors during afternoon to evening.

First system of Northeast monsoon:

First system of Northeast monsoon has started taking shape as a broad East-west trough over Andaman islands. It will spawn circulation over central bay adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal.

The system will concentrate into depression and will intensify further into cyclone. It is expected to get caught by approaching Westerly trough over North India which would take system away from Tamil Nadu by October 24th.

With westerly trough moving in, the steering dynamics are so complex that, no model is showing consistency in path and there is no consensus yet among Ensemble members

Even though the system is seen moving away from TN , Good easterly flow is seen till 22nd which would bring good rain over North coastal’s, delta districts as well as interior areas of Tamil Nadu. Easterly wind flow will immediately get restored once system makes landfall.

Chennai City forecast:

Rains are expected increase their pace from tomorrow onwards, Skies will be partly cloudy with intermittent spells of rains, heavier from October 20th to 22nd.