Northeast Monsoon update

Early forecast from top climate and global models indicate that upcoming NEM season will be bountiful over Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh. Multi-model Ensemble, ECMWF, Cansip model are going with above normal to excess monsoon season over Tamilnadu and Andhra, while CFS model is going with Normal monsoon.

After 2 years of excess monsoon (2020 ,2021),If the above forecast pans out , it will be 3rd year in row that we will be witnessing good monsoon.

With Negative Iod and La-nina in the picture, Bay of bengal will host more no. of cyclones this year , as the atmospheric conditions will support the same.

When will the monsoon begin over Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh?

Numerical weather models are indicating that, NE monsoon will arrive little earlier than normal onset date of 20th October. Southwest monsoon withdrawal has already commenced over NW India , and its withdrawal will speed up soon. Northeast monsoon rains may start between October 12-18.

This forecast is made after thoroughly examining and analysing Global numerical weather models output. The probability factor in this forecast is average considering the time period and duration length of forecast.